Weekly Thoughts
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Japan’s domestic-related stocks likely to continue to outperform exporters
Thus far, Japan’s stock market has been behaving relatively well with higher shareholder returns having provided a big boost to sentiment. With Japan’s corporate earnings season half way through its conclusion, we have…
May 6, 2023 -
While value investors return to Japan near term earnings risks remain
We will keep this week’s publication fairly brief as there have been no major developments to address as clamer markets seem to have prevailed for now. However, Japan’s stock market is getting…
April 15, 2023 -
Japan’s stock market unlikely to be supported by coming corporate earnings season
We have little doubt that credit contraction we are seeing, since start of the banking crisis is leading to slower US economic activity. As far as corporate earnings are concerned, the consensus…
April 8, 2023 -
As US rates look to have peaked, Japan rates need to catch up, pushing yen higher
It’s fairly evident that recent US bank failures have been early signs of stress on the system from Fed’s massive U-turn from its ‘transitional inflation” thesis in late 2021. The speed and the…
April 2, 2023 -
Japan’s banks look insulated to current turmoil but yen’s strength could hurt overseas earnings of multinationals
Markets remain in a state of flux as concerns about the health of global banking system persist. These concerns are partly reflected by the surging asset inflows into US money market funds…
March 26, 2023 -
Black Swan event could also impact Japan’s financials but also brings opportunities
In the past week we have seen what could be best described as a ‘Black Swan’ event engulfing financial firms, sending tremors through global capital markets. Although what we had initially thought…
March 19, 2023 -
Technology export restrictions to China to tighten even further
It was back in October 2021 when in one of our weekly publications, we addressed what we called the “elephant in the room” and the growing risks of tighter US technology export restriction to China…
March 12, 2023 -
Japan’s deteriorating fiscal health adds more pressure to abandon YCC
With US long term treasury yields stabilising below 4% at the end of last week, global stock market breathed a sigh of relief while S&P staged a bounce on its key moving…
March 5, 2023 -
BOJ incoming governor drops big hints of policy divergence
The first testimony in parliament by the incoming BOJ governor, Kazuo Ueda went reasonably well. He pledged his support for BOJ’s continued easing as one would have expected at his nomination hearing, showing…
February 26, 2023 -
Moving on from BOJ we address other key global issues
This week we want to move away from BOJ’s regime change and our call for an end to Abenomics to address other key issues driving global markets. Most importantly, with US inflation…
February 19, 2023
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