Weekly Thoughts
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A Fed pivot looking unlikely for 2023 while cold war comes step closer
July’s US stock market rally has spilt over to August as investors have chosen to ignore economic policy makers’ tougher rhetoric on inflation in speculating that slowing economy will force the US…
August 7, 2022 -
Hopes for lower rates next year look wishful as high inflation will likely persist
Stocks finished the month of July in a joyous mood on hopes that the US Federal Reserve’s latest big interest rate hike will be one of the last few tightening moves that…
July 31, 2022 -
Corporate earnings to take centre stage as visibility deteriorates
With earnings season about to kick into high gear, early omens are not looking great with some of the high-profile US corporate results, particularly those operating in the digital economy already showing weakening…
July 24, 2022 -
Stagflation still a more likely near term scenario
US market participants seems to be desperately looking for an end point where the Fed will finish with its monetary policy tightening as hopes are that the growing likelihood of a recession…
July 17, 2022 -
We pay our respects to Abe-san whose leadership proved transformative
It would have been unthinkable not to dedicate this weekly to the late prime minister, Shinzo Abe whose life was tragically cut short by his assassination last Friday. To be sure, we…
July 9, 2022 -
June’s tech sector blood bath bodes ill for growth investing comeback
Given the importance of Japan in supplying high tech materials and equipment, we think last month’s plunge in shares of related names which gathered more momentum last week is worth exploring. Since…
July 2, 2022 -
The obituary of Japan’s ‘Widow Maker’
With commodity prices easing as global economic activity slows, hopes for tamer inflationary pressures which could lead to a looser monetary policy in 2023 triggered a notable relief rally in battered stocks…
June 25, 2022 -
Markets now fully focused on BOJ’s policy errors
After months of underlining BOJ’s blatant policy errors in this publication, in trying to suppress long term interest rates, last week we saw markets finally fully focusing on this issue. Indeed, reports…
June 18, 2022 -
Time is ticking for BOJ to change policies before the yen implodes
With rise in US inflation measures in May once again exceeding expectations, hopes for a less hawkish Fed have been severely dashed, especially as core inflation gauge there is pointing to growing…
June 11, 2022 -
Weaker yen adding more inflationary pressures while BOJ ignores the dangers
As we noted in our last week’s publication, the Japanese currency was unlikely to retain its brief gains it had registered against other major units since its April lows given BOJ’s highly…
June 4, 2022