Weekly Thoughts
-
We turn cautious on tech names for first time since Jan 2019
Calm before the storm as there is little good news on the near term horizonUS stock market have remained calm in the face of most economic data, pointing to weakening outlook as…
August 9, 2020 -
Failure to act by US and Japan policy makers leave stock markets vulnerable in short term
US fiscal policy paralysis signalling dangers ahead Despite growing concerns about the current deadlock in extending the Covid relief bills, US stock markets have remained remarkably calm. We feel this was partly supported…
August 2, 2020 -
More turbulence ahead as Trump and Abe fight for political survival while Intel shocks
Markets rattled by piling negative developments As we had feared the US stock market is starting to get rattled by number of overlapping negative developments. First and foremost, the fiscal cliffs related…
July 25, 2020 -
US fiscal cliffs and elevated geopolitical risks keep us on the defensive and overweight tech
US fiscal cliffs and raging daily infections could unsettle markets in coming weeksDespite spurts of market excitement over promising sneak peaks in initial test results of Covid-19 vaccines currently in the works,…
July 19, 2020 -
Stock remain well supported for now but dark clouds gathering on the horizon
Recent economic rebound likely to stall leaving a more challenging economic backdropAs tech heavy Nasdaq index continues to reach new highs, S&P has also held steady, looking technically poised to test its…
July 12, 2020 -
Stocks remain supported for now but Trump and Abe’s geopolitics must be watched carefully
Markets remain calm for now but geopolitical tensions rising US stock markets have remained relatively calm for now with tech-heavy Nasdaq once again outperforming other stock indices while VIX or the fear gauge…
July 5, 2020 -
Markets look well supported for now but wounded Trump could pose a big risk
Despite surging infections we see limited near term downside risks, particularly in Japan stocksAlthough Covid-19 infections have been raging unabated across the world, as we have underlined what matters most in terms…
June 27, 2020 -
Virus fears re-emerge while US presidential election run-up to dominate policies
US infection rates on the rise as White House ignores calls for caution Although Covid-19 infection rates have continued to surge across the world, particularly in Brazil and India, from the stock market…
June 20, 2020 -
Massive cash positions to support stock markets while 2nd wave of Covid-19 has yet to come
Our near term thesis of stocks remaining well supported being testedUS stocks tumbled last Thursday as concerns about the resurgence of Covid-19 infections in some parts of the US and the fast…
June 13, 2020 -
Bears abandon ship as US job growth returns but infection rates must be watched as lockdowns ease
Does anything matter to stock markets?The rally in US stocks continued last week as bears are now throwing the towel in droves. The unexpected surge in the May payroll numbers, a reflection…
June 6, 2020