Weekly Thoughts
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Some top-down thoughts on markets for near term
Deteriorating earnings visibility continue to weigh on stock markets with techs and other growth names leading the way down. US earnings season has provided little positive catalysts while investors remain focused on…
May 8, 2022 -
Poor visibility and changing spending patterns proving challenging
The same factors which we addressed in our last publication continue to weigh on stock markets in the short term. As we pointed out then earnings visibility is the poorest it has…
May 1, 2022 -
Poor visibility leaves markets reeling while battle for Donbas brewing
The rebound in stocks has proven short-lived as continued uncertainties about inflation, speed of Fed’s monetary policy tightening and potential disruptions coming from the war in eastern Europe have all converged to…
April 10, 2022 -
BOJ’s missteps to devalue yen to levels that will ultimately force a regime change
BOJ’s battle to keep long term rates suppressed has kept us fairly focused on our own market as we think we might be at a cusp of a Japanese currency turmoil that…
April 3, 2022 -
Stocks rally should continue as Putin’s war gets scaled down and money runs out
We wanted to dedicate yet another publication to BOJ’s blatant policy errors that is leading to yen’s implosion that we think could spell the end of the bank chief’s reign, even before…
March 26, 2022 -
BOJ’s policy error to further devalue yen, forcing Kuroda regime change
In our February 12th publication, just before the war in Europe led us to readjust our expectations for global growth, we dedicated that weekly to potentially dire implications of BOJ’s emergency JGB…
March 19, 2022 -
China looking under mounting pressure to force Russia into peace deal
As we have underlined in recent weeks, chances for stagflation have greatly increased as the impact of war in Europe is already showing signs of demand destruction on top of surging energy…
March 13, 2022 -
China has much to gain to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine
With potentially deliberate Russian strikes on Ukraine’s large nuclear power plant escalating concerns about the war engulfing the rest of Europe, geopolitical risks have completely gripped the market. Energy prices are hitting…
March 5, 2022 -
Russian invasion of Ukraine has greatly raised spectre of stagflation
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added yet another major layer of market uncertainty that has greatly raised the probability of stagflation, a scenario which we have deemed an unlikely one for…
February 27, 2022 -
Geopolitical and regulatory hurdles leave tech stocks highly vulnerable
Market turmoil continued last week and although inflationary pressures dominated headlines, a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on energy prices have not helped matters. Geopolitical and regulatory tensions with China…
February 19, 2022