Weekly Thoughts
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Virus stricken economic activity in Asia leaves little room for optimism for now
Covid-19 going global There are two important aspects of the virus that epidemiologists now highly suspect of. First is that those infected that are asymptomatic could still be highly contagious. The second and…
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Prolonged negative impact of Covid-19 raises doubts about v-shaped recovery scenarios
As US stocks melt up, investors in Japan are more cautious of contagion The US stock market’s liquidity-driven melt-up continues as investors have brushed aside worries about the Covid-19 virus, and are further…
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Despite positive signs of the virus containment, normalisation could take much longer than hoped
The full impact of the virus coming to light but normalisation could take monthsAlthough we had predicted that stock markets would bottom out within the first two weeks of February, once the…
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Coronavirus fast becoming a known known
Short-term economic fallout from virus looks substantial As we highlighted last week, all bullish bets are off as 2019-nCoV virus had the potential to be a Black Swan event and we advised investors…
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Coronavirus: The known unknown
Caution is warranted until at least the middle of next month Just when we thought Japan’s stock market was poised for big gains, we have encountered what can be best described as…
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Rally in stock markets likely to continue while lagging Japan remains the most attractive DM
Benign conditions to continue while weak yen supportive of Japan earnings seasonWith geopolitical tensions in the Middle East having eased somewhat and Phase One of US/China trade deal finally signed, it is…
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Middle East tensions ease as China trade deal and coming earnings season look to push Japanese stocks higher
US/Iran tensions easing while China trade deal to be signed this weekAfter a brief sell-off at the start of the week on heightened concerns about an impending war between US and Iran,…
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Potential US/Iran war unlikely to derail Japan stock market rally in 2020
We expect Topix to test its 1991 highs of 2000 by H1 of this yearWe start 2020 very much where we left off by the end of last year, remaining very bullish…
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2020 show much promise for Japan stocks while BOJ looks set to taper its ETF purchases
2020 looking to be a very promising year for Japanese stocksFor our last publication of the year, we focus on Japan’s stock market and its promising outlook for 2020. We turned positive…
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With Phase One deal done, Japan’s Topix is on course to hit 2018 highs by year-end
Phase One deal out of the way allowing stocks to advance furtherGlobal stock markets rallied as Phase One of the US/China trade deal was finally struck with US agreeing to cut in…