Weekly Thoughts
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Japanese manufacturing stocks look vulnerable, especially autos and semiconductor tool makers
Despite most recent headwinds from stronger yen on shares of exporters, the Topix has generally held on to its November gains, closely following the US market’s broader melt-up on a sudden shift…
December 4, 2023 -
It’s the yen, stupid!
In Japan, larger cap growth stocks have rebounded strongly following their US counterparts based on the view that US rates have peaked and we might see rate cuts sometime next term. Indeed,…
November 19, 2023 -
Japan corporate earnings trends observed from the latest results
Japan’s corporate earnings season certainly proved eventful, however, surprises were skewed to the downside as we had anticipated. Momentum in share buybacks remained healthy enough but what was notable this season was…
November 12, 2023 -
Japanese corporate earnings season already looking negative
With the Nikkei falling towards its 200 day moving average following the faltering tech heavy Nasdaq, it seems to us that some pedestrian global investors who piled into Japan earlier this year…
October 28, 2023 -
BOJ’s recent indications suggest an imminent regime change
The key question we have wrestled with this year regarding our own market has been whether the secular rally in the Japanese equity universe, particularly in names trading below book and with…
October 21, 2023 -
A quick summary of the grim top-down picture unfolding
This week we touch upon on number of developments that keep us awake at night and go beyond just Japan. But first, we want to quickly focus on BOJ’s latest policy meeting…
September 23, 2023 -
BOJ looks cornered as weakening yen looks likely force policy change
Not surprisingly, BOJ officials on Friday warned that Ueda-san’s comments made earlier in the week that he may reassess the central bank’s ultra loose monetary policy by year-end does not veer off…
September 16, 2023 -
Japan technology stocks looking vulnerable near term
This week we focus on technology stocks but as usual, through a Japan lens. We have been mostly negative on the sector since early summer as their shares seemed overbought after having…
September 10, 2023 -
Sentiment change in the US leave us wrong-footed in Japan stocks
Just when we were becoming more cautious of Japanese corporate earnings outlook, the sudden change in perception in US macro factors have drastically improved sentiment and as we move away from the…
September 3, 2023 -
Jackson Hole symposium failed to dispel fears of rising interest rates
Although Nvidia’s spectacular quarterly earnings briefly helped to push stocks higher led by technology shares, the rally quickly fizzled out as investors remained concerned about the prospects of interest rates remaining higher…
August 27, 2023
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